Depreciation

[soulstyledevon]

2015 Club Joker

Nice.
Really cool vans.
Side loaded surfboard rack

 

[Blue Yonder]

Jimmy you must have read my mind! You're absolutely spot on, I've really wrestled with the option of a GC and keep going back to see if I can live with them, they're very discounted and many of the dealers I called said they could only consider my Cali if it was a trade for GC. I've looked at them and tried to change my views, but to me they're just too clinical & utilitarian looking for me,. They're really good value for money but just don't feel 'warm' like the Cali or other larger conversions. I really don't want to offend any GC owners as with 0% over 5 years and discounts of c10% they're a very compelling proposition.

The best Crafter/Man conversion to me the Sven Hedin which imo is the perfect blend of modern interior and homely feel, but for most the 2 berths wouldn't work. The Widax Altair seems really good value at the moment with many discounted new from £97k to £90k.

I do love the Cali and it's cemented my love of campers (my first ever) but as my years advance I know I'm going to want an integrated bathroom/shower & fixed bed which the Cali doesn't offer. I'm guessing you've done some research yourself the only other option avoiding wide Motorhomes is the Hymer but I can't quite work out what the extra 20k - 30k over the former gets you?

Much of the depreciation is hidden by inflation. Check the asking price of a high spec good condition used Cali against its original price and there will not be much difference. For example a fully loaded brand new Ocean in 2018 could be had for £58k. You could sell it close to that price today as an equivalent new one now is £75k. The difference is the hidden depreciation.

 

[Tufty_B]

Wow, it looks like the bottom has completely fallen out of the campervan market. I was looking at buying one and went to a show a couple of months back. It was wild—dealers were already knocking 25% off brand new, unregistered 2025 models!
And get this: some places still had unsold 2022 vans just sitting there. Can you imagine how many 2023 and 2024 models they must have piled up? Honestly, I bet a bunch of these companies are going to go bust soon. I even heard Motorhome Matt discuss this exact issue with dealers on his show.
This has got to hit VW prices eventually, right? They've always been rock solid, but that's just been held up by the crazy prices of new Calis. Because they cost so much, everyone just trades their old one in, and the dealers can charge whatever they want. That whole system's bound to feel the pinch soon.

 

[andyinluton]

This has got to hit VW prices eventually, right? They've always been rock solid, but that's just been held up by the crazy prices of new Calis. Because they cost so much, everyone just trades their old one in, and the dealers can charge whatever they want. That whole system's bound to feel the pinch soon.

People have been saying that since about 2012, one year they may be right.

 

[Tufty_B]

People have been saying that since about 2012, one year they may be right.

So, you're saying since 2012 other makers have been dropping their prices by 25% on their current model unregistered vans, while also still trying to shift 3-year-old vehicles that have just been sitting unregistered?

 

[soulstyledevon]

No.
But the T7 is a turd compared to the old van.
Hence why the discounts are thick and fast….

 

[Tufty_B]

No.
But the T7 is a turd compared to the old van.
Hence why the discounts are thick and fast….

How does the VW T7 being a turd, make other manufacturers reduce their prices by 25%?

 

[Goingontour]

I did a whole post on this thread earlier, it’s been deleted for some reason. Basically we’ve had our 2023 (73) Ocean for 5 months. We’ve decided to sell and visited to a VW dealership and offered £14k less than we paid for it! It’s immaculate, top spec, low mileage. We’re gutted. Some online car buyers have offered more but still an enormous loss in 5 months, there’s so much on the internet etc about retaining a good price and low depreciation but that’s clearly not the case!

 

[soulstyledevon]

So, you're saying since 2012 other makers have been dropping their prices by 25% on their current model unregistered vans, while also still trying to shift 3-year-old vehicles that have just been sitting unregistered?

Demand is down across the board.
Volkswagen have gone from strength to, well, erm, yeah, a bit of car crash…

 

[SusiBus]

I did a whole post on this thread earlier, it’s been deleted for some reason. Basically we’ve had our 2023 (73) Ocean for 5 months. We’ve decided to sell and visited to a VW dealership and offered £14k less than we paid for it! It’s immaculate, top spec, low mileage. We’re gutted. Some online car buyers have offered more but still an enormous loss in 5 months, there’s so much on the internet etc about retaining a good price and low depreciation but that’s clearly not the case!

Campervan prices, including Californias, vary dramatically on the season of the year that you're buying or selling. You appear to have bought in the spring and are now trying to sell in the late Autumn to a dealer, which is the worst case scenario for being hit with depreciation. If you can, keep it till next spring and sell it privately, you will be able to achieve a much better price.

 

[SusiBus]

Done lots of research Barry, even hired a GC for a couple of days back in October and we had a lovely time in it. Very easy to find it after a day at the beach as you’ll see in the pic

I may swap at some point but I really want to give the Ocean a run in its natural environment (spring/summer) and see how we get on with it. They’ll be refreshing the Crafter this year which will resolve some
issues I had with the GC (not least the awful handbrake) so that’s an option for later in the year, and so too is a caravan which would allow us to maintain all the flexibility of an Ocean with more comfort and convenience on longer trips and colder weather.

I had some pretty dark days through bellowsgate where I just wanted the van gone but I think it’s important not to rush your decision and end up with something else that isn’t right, that you’ll ultimately lose more money on.

Would definitely recommend talking to Breeze about a GC hire, even just to see how you get on with using a bigger van.

View attachment 119817

Love the picture and caption.

 

[Andy C Berks.]

Am sure the life of a dealer is pretty uncertain at the moment - on the one hand they will have to assume it will take them a lot longer to shift stock (the current uncertainty around the budget and what comes after will be an added drag to an already squeezed pool of purchasers). As mentioned above this will also include an assumption they will sit on it for 6 months until the sun comes out. On the other hand in the wake of the FCA ruling on motor finance, the supply of stocking finance is much thinner and more expensive so they will only deploy capital when they know they have enough fat in the deal to take the risk on. Dare say all their other op. costs are higher than they were 12 months ago too.

Having said that its probably worth trying a handful of different dealers as they will all be in different situations with their stocking requirements and financial situation.

 

[JuanVecino2023]

I suspect campervans are up there with horses and boats as lead indicators of a squeezed middle class.

Usually in the months prior to a full recession, the volumes of listings of horses and boats for sale increases significantly.

Californianomics

 

[soulstyledevon]

There’s a similar indicator for JD Sports sales too, which is linked to the working class…