Are prices due to crash?

[soulstyledevon]

I think the market has changed a lot since Spring. Oversupply of 6.1 models combined with people upgrading or selling up. Things are getting back to how they used to be pre covid. There are some v good buys atm and also a lot of overpriced Cali's in the private sales imo.
I haven't seen as much change with other models so is it a saturated Cali market? Probably.
Will the new Multivan Cali strengthen the residuals of existing Californias?

It’s the general Campervan/Motorhome market.
Some main dealers still have unsold new 2024 stock.Apparently, dealers are offering high part exchange dealers or low/0% APR to shift new vans. Which is having an effect further down the food chain, as dealers have more used stock available, prices are now starting to fall.
Theres been a few Caravan dealer's which have gone out of business too. Broad Lane is one of them.

It had to happen sooner or later…

 

[Corradobrit]

Temporary glitch. Lets see what happens in a year when the Sharavan is the only new Cali on the forecourt. Should be interesting.

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

Temporary glitch. Let’s see what happens in a year when the Sharavan is the only new Cali on the forecourt. Should be interesting.

It could go either way. The market has definitely been completely saturated, and that’ll have a lasting effect I think. The T6.1 will always be viewed as the old model though, even though it’s obviously much better than the Sharavan, so that’ll have an effect too. It’s wishful thinking to think that T6.1 will recover in value from where it is now I think. Perhaps a slowing in the rate of depreciation but it’ll always be the old model.

 

[Barry Chuckle]

It could go either way. The market has definitely been completely saturated, and that’ll have a lasting effect I think. The T6.1 will always be viewed as the old model though, even though it’s obviously much better than the Sharavan, so that’ll have an effect too. It’s wishful thinking to think that T6.1 will recover in value from where it is now I think. Perhaps a slowing in the rate of depreciation but it’ll always be the old model.

I think you're right, even though the T6 is a brilliant van, many will overlook it purely because it's not the latest model. And I think those wanting the latest model won't look to the 6.1 if they don't like the T7 they'll simply look at other new vans.

I think the depreciation won't be quite so savage moving forwards and it will become more linear. Perhaps that's a good thing for most owners as the price bubble created by Covid didn't do many any favours.

 

[Jimmylondon07]

Pretty much same story here, tried to sell my Cali privately absolutely no takers. Dealer sat on my van for about 5 months incrementally reducing the price. It was eventually sold for £2k less than what they bought if off me for (assuming they didn't discount the final price further)

Appreciate it's still the honeymoon period but how are you getting on with your GC? Going bigger was 100% definitely the right decision for me really enjoying the additional comfort and convenience of the Sven!

Engine warning light came on first trip so had to come back early and it’s going back in Wednesday, don’t have much luck really do I?!! But from the part of the trip that we completed, much better for us. We hired one last year so some of its limitations haven’t come as a surprise

Height anxiety is probably the biggest issue with it, not for parking but for those low hanging branches on country lanes. Sccrraappeee.

 

[Corradobrit]

Yes the Covid bubble was a thing, and thats history. Hopefully no one here bought at the height of the craziness, especially secondary market. I would compare pre Covid pricing and use that as the reference wrt value and depreciation.

 

[Barry Chuckle]

Engine warning light came on first trip so had to come back early and it’s going back in Wednesday, don’t have much luck really do I?!! But from the part of the trip that we completed, much better for us. We hired one last year so some of its limitations haven’t come as a surprise

Height anxiety is probably the biggest issue with it, not for parking but for those low hanging branches on country lanes. Sccrraappeee.

I'm the same, as I use Google Maps rather than the rubbish VW in built satnav it took me right to a 7ft bridge which clearly I couldn't get under.

You will inevitably scrape the sides of the van and roof in time and probably get a few hairline scratches. I certainly have and black is probably the worst colour for this! But all part of ownership I guess

 

[Camperfamily]

With the 0% finance deals available at the moment and additional discounts available on remaining new stock vehicles, 2nd hand prices for nearly new must be affected in the region of around 10k.

Once these vehicles are sold and the 0% offer ends, I think they will bounce back a fair bit.

Having recently picked up a new Ocean in May, I really regret not ordering a new high Spec Beach before factory orders ended. I made an enquiry about a stock Beach but the P/X price offered was very disappointing!

Exactly what we did regarding the Beach - ordered a last run T6.1 Beach Camper, ticked ALL the available Beach options except for heated screen, electric sliding door and bigger alloys.

Expect to keep it a long time; if not, I doubt we’ll lose much on it.

I even added the additional chrome strip inspired by one of your older posts.

 

[reserves]

These run out Californias are everywhere and deals to be had.

Makes sense for any one looking for a T6.1 to buy a new one now.

Like others have said, I think used prices will recover a little once they are all gone and no more T6.1’s available.

My own personal opinon on values at the mo for an average mileage good condition California:

T5: £22k - £25k
T5.1: £28k - £34k
T6: £42k - £48k
T6.1: £53k - £56k

At the moment for the record new T6.1’s are available for around £68k.

 

[DGB99]

Anyone with a link for the current best deals for a new California 6.1? What are the best 'extras' worth looking out for?

 

[reserves]

Anyone with a link for the current best deals for a new California 6.1? What are the best 'extras' worth looking out for?

Give Breeze Poole a call, or https://www.swanswaygarages.com/volkswagen-commercial/contact-us/liverpool/

Personally I don’t think any extras are essential on the T6.1 Ocean, they come very well specified as standard.

 

[Corradobrit]

Anyone with a link for the current best deals for a new California 6.1? What are the best 'extras' worth looking out for?

Probably removable tow bar.

 

[pjm-84]

These run out Californias are everywhere and deals to be had.

Makes sense for any one looking for a T6.1 to buy a new one now.

Like others have said, I think used prices will recover a little once they are all gone and no more T6.1’s available.

My own personal opinon on values at the mo for an average mileage good condition California:

T5: £22k - £25k
T5.1: £28k - £34k
T6: £42k - £48k
T6.1: £53k - £56k

At the moment for the record new T6.1’s are available for around £68k.

Laughing at the 8k difference in the last of the T5.1 and the first of the T6s.....

 

[reserves]

Laughing at the 8k difference in the last of the T5.1 and the first of the T6s.....

Just my personal thoughts for what they are worth, always interested in others opinions on values.

I did have the T5.1 ending at £35k, not sure what happened there.

The T6 is ULEZ compliant, and is biggest step up of the range (going from T5.1 to T6) in my opinion in terms of build / dash / quality.

I’ve owned all of them except T6.1 which I’ve driven, like I say just my guesses / thoughts

Edited:

T5: £22k - £25k
T5.1: £28k - £35k
T6: £42k - £48k
T6.1: £53k - £56k

New T6.1 £68k

 

[2into1]

Just my personal thoughts for what they are worth, always interested in others opinions on values.

I did have the T5.1 ending at £35k, not sure what happened there.

The T6 is ULEZ compliant, and is biggest step up of the range (going from T5.1 to T6) in my opinion in terms of build / dash / quality.

I’ve owned all of them except T6.1 which I’ve driven, like I say just my guesses / thoughts

Edited:

T5: £22k - £25k
T5.1: £28k - £35k
T6: £42k - £48k
T6.1: £53k - £56k

New T6.1 £68k

Brave stab, but there can't be a £14k between a new 6.1 and a very slightly used one? For a good decade Cali's have been losing about £2k a year. I know that has long gone but a £14k gap would have covered 7 year's worth of depreciation.
I think the greatest determinant of used prices will be what happens with list prices. A T5 that in your list could be £25k perhaps only listed new at £32k. That list is now nearer £80k.

 

[reserves]

Brave stab, but there can't be a £14k between a new 6.1 and a very slightly used one? For a good decade Cali's have been losing about £2k a year. I know that has long gone but a £14k gap would have covered 7 year's worth of depreciation.
I think the greatest determinant of used prices will be what happens with list prices. A T5 that in your list could be £25k perhaps only listed new at £32k. That list is now nearer £80k.

My thoughts there were really around financing, right now there's 0% on a new T6.1's with strong discounts.

But yeah, probably need to close the gap a little, like I say just a stab at it

 

[da_murphster]

ULEZ will drive price differences IMHO, it’s going to get more and more difficult to drive an older diesel over the next few years.

 

[OooOooTheMonkey]

List price of the new model will have a big impact and what discounts can be had on it. I doubt there’ll be much in the way of discounts and don’t expect 0% will be available so T6.1 prices will likely steady quite a bit once the new one comes out (assuming that the new one is around £80k for an Ocean).

 

[chockswahay]

I think the price of diesel/petrol vehicles can only go South. It's only a matter of time before ice vehicle road tax increases and the price of diesel and petrol follows. At some stage we all have to get on board with climate change. I certainly will not buy another vehicle that is not electric ( I am considering self converting an electric van, it won't be as sophisticated as the VW but then again it won't cost as much either!).

 

[Corradobrit]

I think the price of diesel/petrol vehicles can only go South. It's only a matter of time before ice vehicle road tax increases and the price of diesel and petrol follows. At some stage we all have to get on board with climate change. I certainly will not buy another vehicle that is not electric ( I am considering self converting an electric van, it won't be as sophisticated as the VW but then again it won't cost as much either!).

For anyone over 60, I don't think this is going to be a concern in our lifetime. Uptake of BEV's in Europe is pitiful. Charging infrastructure is equally behind the curve. Diesel and petrol vehicles will be available new until 2035 and this will possibly get pushed further out.

 

[chockswahay]

For anyone over 60, I don't think this is going to be a concern in our lifetime. Uptake of BEV's in Europe is pitiful. Charging infrastructure is equally behind the curve. Diesel and petrol vehicles will be available new until 2035 and this will possibly get pushed further out.

I'm 67 and it concerns me! We all have to take responsibility for our actions and the world we are leaving for our children/grandchildren . I have heard all the arguments against BEV etc....... it makes no difference, we have to start somewhere. Of course this thread is not about climate change so I will keep my rant to a minimum. I believe that ice vehicles will become cheaper to buy but more expensive to run. This does affect us (VW owners) and is a strange paradox but it is what it is.

 

[reserves]

I think the price of diesel/petrol vehicles can only go South. It's only a matter of time before ice vehicle road tax increases and the price of diesel and petrol follows. At some stage we all have to get on board with climate change. I certainly will not buy another vehicle that is not electric ( I am considering self converting an electric van, it won't be as sophisticated as the VW but then again it won't cost as much either!).

I’d agree this makes sense, but there’s no evidence of.this at the moment.

A used 2020 diesel Golf costs as much as a 2020 Tesla Model 3 long range

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Just my personal thoughts for what they are worth, always interested in others opinions on values.

I did have the T5.1 ending at £35k, not sure what happened there.

The T6 is ULEZ compliant, and is biggest step up of the range (going from T5.1 to T6) in my opinion in terms of build / dash / quality.

I’ve owned all of them except T6.1 which I’ve driven, like I say just my guesses / thoughts

Edited:

T5: £22k - £25k
T5.1: £28k - £35k
T6: £42k - £48k
T6.1: £53k - £56k

New T6.1 £68k

My 2008 T5 SE cost £36K in 2009 so I'm pretty happy

 

[pjm-84]

I think the price of diesel/petrol vehicles can only go South. It's only a matter of time before ice vehicle road tax increases and the price of diesel and petrol follows. At some stage we all have to get on board with climate change. I certainly will not buy another vehicle that is not electric ( I am considering self converting an electric van, it won't be as sophisticated as the VW but then again it won't cost as much either!).

VED coming into force next year for EVs including the £40k premium tax for new EVs (odd that hasn't gone up by inflation).... so you will be paying £590 VED on the ID Buzz for 25/26 year

I'm actually thinking the other way. Buy a £35 VED car from the pre 2017 period

 

[soulstyledevon]

For anyone over 60, I don't think this is going to be a concern in our lifetime. Uptake of BEV's in Europe is pitiful. Charging infrastructure is equally behind the curve. Diesel and petrol vehicles will be available new until 2035 and this will possibly get pushed further out.

Disagree

Manufacturers are being forced down the route of EV by punitive legislation.
They must meet 22% this year of total vehicles produced as EV. By 2030, the figure is 80%.
If targets are missed, the manufacturer faces fines of £15000 per unit.

I know Aston don’t give a monkeys .
Their cars will increase in value by £15000.
But £15000 on the price of a Ford Focus…???
Yep, the EV are coming, wether you want them or not.